In the course of a few months in 1980, about 125,000 Cubans left Cuba for Miami. What happens to a city when it gains 125,000 immigrants seemingly overnight?
I really enjoyed this case study, it wasn't an event I had a great understanding of. I had a few complications to throw at the analysis.
> Voters did not seem to blame the county or city’s Democratic mayors; Democrats remained in power in Miami.
It would be interesting to look at the tenure and family relations of those Democrats in Miami. I suspect they have strong local ties, which dominated any ideological association.
> If adding 5% to your city’s labor force in a month doesn’t change wages for even those most similar to the new workers, probably nothing will.
You argued that demand for goods and services would go up as a result of more labor force, which seems plausible. However, consider that there was just a big backlog of work at agreed upon prices. So the local capacity for projects would expand to fill that at those same wages, with shorter wait times until it stabilized at some equilibrium. (This argument is a sneaky let-people-build-things argument because it presumes people will find productive uses of labor and resources without affecting prices.)
The then-mayor of Miami was the first Latino mayor of Miami, but is Puerto Rican (not Cuban): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Ferr%C3%A9. The county (somewhat inexplicably) also has a mayor, who does not appear to have been Latino: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_P._Clark. I don't know enough about each to say much else, but Thompson also shows no backlash for House candidates.
I love these “natural experiment” type studies that help us draw conclusions in a world that otherwise has too many variables.
The long and short is, despite repeated populist claims otherwise, an influx of immigrants does not have the effect of reducing wages or raising unemployment. It is interesting to see the crime stats, if a bit unsurprising given that young unemployed men are probably more prone to crime.
Nice post!
I really enjoyed this case study, it wasn't an event I had a great understanding of. I had a few complications to throw at the analysis.
> Voters did not seem to blame the county or city’s Democratic mayors; Democrats remained in power in Miami.
It would be interesting to look at the tenure and family relations of those Democrats in Miami. I suspect they have strong local ties, which dominated any ideological association.
> If adding 5% to your city’s labor force in a month doesn’t change wages for even those most similar to the new workers, probably nothing will.
You argued that demand for goods and services would go up as a result of more labor force, which seems plausible. However, consider that there was just a big backlog of work at agreed upon prices. So the local capacity for projects would expand to fill that at those same wages, with shorter wait times until it stabilized at some equilibrium. (This argument is a sneaky let-people-build-things argument because it presumes people will find productive uses of labor and resources without affecting prices.)
The then-mayor of Miami was the first Latino mayor of Miami, but is Puerto Rican (not Cuban): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Ferr%C3%A9. The county (somewhat inexplicably) also has a mayor, who does not appear to have been Latino: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_P._Clark. I don't know enough about each to say much else, but Thompson also shows no backlash for House candidates.
Wonderful piece Lauren Gilbert.
I love these “natural experiment” type studies that help us draw conclusions in a world that otherwise has too many variables.
The long and short is, despite repeated populist claims otherwise, an influx of immigrants does not have the effect of reducing wages or raising unemployment. It is interesting to see the crime stats, if a bit unsurprising given that young unemployed men are probably more prone to crime.
I also referenced the boatlift in my review of the topic of migration here, not in as much detail as you for sure: https://www.lianeon.org/p/how-to-gain-45-trillion