I agree with the general argument, but I think there's a consideration left out of your analysis that it is unlikely that migrants have less prison time for their crimes than native Britons. If the system is biased against ethnic minority groups, that means that migrants who commit crimes would be treated more harshly. But, as you note later on, migrants mostly commit crimes against other ethnic minority groups. So the judicial system is also biased against their victims, which could lead to lighter sentences; it would be unethical, but I'd strongly suspect that victims needing an interpreter to communicate with the court would make it more likely that they don't press charges (because an interpreter is additional resources). The victims might also be less likely to respond to later contacts after reporting a crime. I still think your overall argument (migrants don't seem to be causing large crime increases, particularly if they have legal opportunities) holds, but this adds in an additional complication.
Right, I should have noted that! In general, ethnic minorities in the UK tend to receive longer sentences than whites, even within the same category of crime: https://www.crimrxiv.com/pub/js8s1mt8/release/1
I don't want to hang my hat on this evidence, because these papers aren't causal, and also ethnic minorities and immigrants are overlapping but not identical categories, but I think it's relatively unlikely that ethnic minorities receive lighter sentences than whites in the UK
I really like the refugee wave and EU papers. It fits with a lot of American research too. Folks who missed the Reagan legalization program still committed some property crime (income generating, so folks theoretically turning there to pay bills when excluded from legal work).
The other element is perception and reporting VS reality. Crime can fall, but folks may act like it rises if information they receive looks like crime is increasing. I think that the best paper on this I've seen is about a South American country's reaction to Venezuelan refugees. (If it's of interest, then I can find it.) Seems relevant in the EU case as well with a few prominent cases getting attention.
I think it was this IZA paper on Chile. Maybe I'm misremembering the VZ connection.
I think the World Bank might have done some research like it as well. Or IMF? They had a series on Venezuelan refugees since it was such a large number and there was some policy variation among receiving countries.
I agree with the general argument, but I think there's a consideration left out of your analysis that it is unlikely that migrants have less prison time for their crimes than native Britons. If the system is biased against ethnic minority groups, that means that migrants who commit crimes would be treated more harshly. But, as you note later on, migrants mostly commit crimes against other ethnic minority groups. So the judicial system is also biased against their victims, which could lead to lighter sentences; it would be unethical, but I'd strongly suspect that victims needing an interpreter to communicate with the court would make it more likely that they don't press charges (because an interpreter is additional resources). The victims might also be less likely to respond to later contacts after reporting a crime. I still think your overall argument (migrants don't seem to be causing large crime increases, particularly if they have legal opportunities) holds, but this adds in an additional complication.
Right, I should have noted that! In general, ethnic minorities in the UK tend to receive longer sentences than whites, even within the same category of crime: https://www.crimrxiv.com/pub/js8s1mt8/release/1
I don't want to hang my hat on this evidence, because these papers aren't causal, and also ethnic minorities and immigrants are overlapping but not identical categories, but I think it's relatively unlikely that ethnic minorities receive lighter sentences than whites in the UK
Great overview!
I think you might find this book a good resource for extending this in the future. Pinotti's other academic work like like you've got covered already.
Does Immigration Increase Crime?
https://a.co/a4jsddx
I really like the refugee wave and EU papers. It fits with a lot of American research too. Folks who missed the Reagan legalization program still committed some property crime (income generating, so folks theoretically turning there to pay bills when excluded from legal work).
The other element is perception and reporting VS reality. Crime can fall, but folks may act like it rises if information they receive looks like crime is increasing. I think that the best paper on this I've seen is about a South American country's reaction to Venezuelan refugees. (If it's of interest, then I can find it.) Seems relevant in the EU case as well with a few prominent cases getting attention.
Ah, I didn't realize Pinotti had a book!
Re. Venezuela - this paper? https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00220388.2024.2407822?src=exp-la
I'm planning to cover it in a post about refugees (along with a couple of papers on Syrian refugees in Turkey: https://eaf.ku.edu.tr/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/erf_wp_2113.pdf, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0305750X22000481).
I think it was this IZA paper on Chile. Maybe I'm misremembering the VZ connection.
I think the World Bank might have done some research like it as well. Or IMF? They had a series on Venezuelan refugees since it was such a large number and there was some policy variation among receiving countries.
https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/14087/immigration-crime-and-crime-misperceptions
AEJ published it: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20210156
Editing to add that I also liked this paper given that language barriers meant that I couldn't parse the German data myself.
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-319-72159-0_26