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Daniel di Martino has a ballpark figure for H-1B fiscal effects. But I think you're right that there's not any research of them specifically in this area.

https://manhattan.institute/article/the-lifetime-fiscal-impact-of-immigrants

You might like the modeling in this paper. Waugh looks at expanding the supply of H-1B visas. It's one I've always liked since it's meant to examine a real proposal to increase the number of that visa type:

https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/high-skilled-migration-united-states-and-its-economic-consequences/firm-dynamics-and-immigration-case-high-skilled-immigration

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I also thought about including https://academic.oup.com/qje/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/qje/qjae040/7912563?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=false, because it gives an estimate of the long-run growth effects of H-1B visas, but the applied micro person in me won out and I focused on the visa lottery papers instead of model papers.

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Always more to write about! Haha

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Substack likes to warn me that my posts are "too long to send by email" (for some email clients) as it is. ;)

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